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Geo Politics

'JD, Habibi': Michigan Senator-Elect Abdul El-Sayed Taunts Vance After Historic Win

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan's U.S. Senate election on 3 November 2026, becoming the first Muslim American elected to the chamber, according to election-night reports. During his victory remarks early on 4 November, he addressed Vice President JD Vance as 'habibi' and pointed to the irony of Vance administering his Senate oath in January. El-Sayed also told President Donald Trump that he could address him as 'senator'. The victory adds a historic representation milestone to the 2026 U.S. midterm results, but no direct financial-market reaction to the speech has been independently established.

S&P 500 INDEXU.S. DOLLAR INDEXSENATOR
Indices

Novo Nordisk Raises 2026 Outlook as Wegovy Pill Drives Stronger Q3 Earnings

Novo Nordisk raised its 2026 outlook on 4 November after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter adjusted profit. The company reported adjusted operating profit of DKK 31.72 billion and adjusted quarterly sales of approximately DKK 79.20 billion. Its Wegovy pill generated DKK 5.39 billion in quarterly revenue. Novo now expects full-year adjusted sales and adjusted operating profit growth at constant exchange rates to range from a decline of 2% to growth of 2%, versus a previously weaker outlook. The company also reported impairment charges that weighed on reported operating profit, so adjusted and reported earnings should not be conflated. Reuters reported that shares initially rose after the announcement.

NOVO NORDISK ADRNOVO NORDISK B SHARES
Forex

Sweden’s Riksbank Raises Policy Rate to 2% as Energy Inflation Risks Persist

Sweden’s Riksbank raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% on 4 November 2026, its first increase in more than three years, according to same-day Wall Street Journal reporting. The move was widely anticipated and follows the central bank’s September decision to hold at 1.75%. Policymakers indicated additional tightening may follow if inflation and economic activity develop as projected. The Riksbank’s published schedule says the new policy rate takes effect on 11 November. War-related energy costs and resilient domestic activity remain important considerations. This is a confirmed decision reported by an established news outlet, but the November decision text on the Riksbank website could not be independently retrieved in this check.

EUR/SEKUSD/SEK
Macro

Ireland Flash Inflation Rises to 4.0% in October as Energy Prices Surge

Ireland’s Central Statistics Office estimated on 3 November 2026 that harmonised consumer-price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in October from 3.8% in September. Prices increased 0.5% month on month. Energy costs rose 18.3% over the year and 4.5% during October, while food prices were just 0.1% higher than a year earlier. Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food was estimated at 2.5% annually. These are Ireland’s preliminary harmonised inflation figures, not the euro-area October flash estimate, which was scheduled for 4 November.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50
Macro

Hong Kong Private-Sector PMI Returns to Expansion at 50.2 in October

Hong Kong's S&P Global private-sector purchasing managers' index rose to 50.2 in October 2026 from 49.2 in September, returning just above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Reporting on 4 November said new orders improved after two months of decline, including stronger orders from mainland China, while the pace of job cuts eased. However, business confidence for the year ahead reportedly fell to its lowest level in more than six years and input-price pressure intensified. This is a Hong Kong private-sector survey, not China's mainland manufacturing PMI.

HONG KONG 50 EQUITY INDEXUS DOLLAR / HONG KONG DOLLAR
Macro

Australia Household Spending Rises 0.6% in September as Fuel Costs Climb

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said on 4 November 2026 that seasonally adjusted household spending rose 0.6% month on month in September, after a 0.1% decline in August. Spending increased 6.8% from a year earlier in current-price terms, while spending volumes rose 0.7% in the September quarter. Transport and health spending each increased 1.5% month on month. The ABS reported that fuel expenditure rose 5.4%, partly reflecting higher global oil prices and the end of fuel-excise relief in August. These are household spending figures, not retail-sales or inflation-rate estimates.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLARAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN
Macro

China Services Growth Slows as October Private PMI Falls to 50.8

China's RatingDog services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.8 in October 2026 from 51.6 in September, marking its slowest expansion since July. The result was below the 51.7 forecast shown by Investing.com's economic calendar. Reuters reported that business confidence weakened as companies faced fierce competition and rising costs. A reading above 50 still indicates expansion rather than contraction. This is a private services-sector survey, separate from China's official October manufacturing PMI and its private manufacturing survey.

US DOLLAR / OFFSHORE CHINESE YUANAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR
Indices

Shopify Revenue Grows 32% but Q3 Sales and GMV Miss Some Forecasts

Shopify reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of approximately $3.74 billion, up 32% year on year, and gross merchandise volume of about $119.15 billion, up around 29%. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.49 and free cash flow margin was 22%. External consensus comparisons varied by data provider: Yahoo Finance reported revenue and GMV below its polled estimates, while the company itself emphasised strong growth. The Yahoo Finance report cited an 8.7% share-price fall on Tuesday; that is a session-specific observation.

SHOPNAS100
Macro

New Zealand Unemployment Rises to 5.7% as Employment Falls in Q3

Stats NZ reported on 4 November 2026 that New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in the September quarter, from 5.6% in June. Seasonally adjusted employment fell 0.1% to approximately 2.891 million people, while the employment rate eased to 66.4% from 66.7%. The unemployment rate was above the 5.5% forecast cited in the stats.govt.nz report. Annual wage-rate inflation was 2.1%.

NZDUSDAUDNZD
Macro

US Job Openings Hold Near 7.5 Million as Quits Increase in September

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 3 November 2026 that job openings were little changed at approximately 7.5 million in September. Hires were little changed at 5.4 million and total separations at 5.3 million. Quits increased to about 3.4 million, while layoffs and discharges were broadly unchanged at 1.6 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics report quotes a rounded 7.52 million reading against a 7.15 million forecast; this summary uses the official BLS rounded release figures.

DXYEURUSDUS10Y
Indices

AMD Reports Record $13.4 Billion Q3 Revenue as Data Centre Sales Jump 97%

Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $13.377 billion on 3 November, up 45% from a year earlier. Its data centre business generated $8.546 billion, a 97% increase, driven by demand for EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs. GAAP net income was $2.428 billion and non-GAAP diluted earnings were $2.09 per share. The figures are from AMD’s published earnings release, not forecasts.

AMDNAS100SOX
Indices

Asian Chip Stocks Slide as Nikkei and Kospi Fall on AI Valuation Concerns

Asian technology and semiconductor shares fell on 4 November 2026 as investors weighed expensive AI valuations and US midterm election developments. The Associated Press reported Japan’s Nikkei down about 3.6%, South Korea’s Kospi down about 3.2%, and Taiwan’s Taiex down about 2.3% in the observed session. Kioxia, SK Hynix and Samsung were among the declining chip-related names. These are time-specific market observations, not final exchange closing prices.

JAPAN225KOSPIAMD
Geo Politics

US Midterm Projections Point to Democratic Control of Congress

US media projections following the 3 November 2026 midterm elections indicate Democrats have won the House and made major Senate gains. Reuters reported House control was projected in the Democrats’ favour; Axios reported a Democratic Senate takeover based on Associated Press projections. Some races were still being counted when the reports appeared. These are media projections rather than certified final congressional results, and reports of market losses cannot by themselves prove the election was the sole catalyst.

DXYUS500NAS100
Yesterday
Geo Politics

Vessel Damaged by Unknown Projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO Says

A vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile, leaving a hole in the ship, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said on 2 November 2026, according to the Associated Press. UKMTO reported that all crew members were safe. The origin of the projectile, vessel identity, extent of operational damage and responsibility for the incident were not established in the cited account. The incident is distinct from earlier unconfirmed Iranian claims about tankers hitting mines.

BRENT CRUDE OILWTI CRUDE OIL
Geo Politics

China Plans Envoy Visit to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia as Gulf Tensions Rise

China announced on 2 November 2026 that it would send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November to encourage dialogue and help ease Gulf tensions. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held separate discussions in Beijing with Iranian and Saudi security officials and urged political solutions rather than renewed military action. Beijing highlighted regional energy flows and shipping security. The announced trip is a diplomatic initiative; no ceasefire, mediation agreement or reopening of shipping routes was confirmed.

BRENT CRUDE OILUS DOLLAR / OFFSHORE YUAN
Geo Politics

US Carries Out Limited Strikes on Iranian Targets Near Qeshm Island

The United States carried out limited strikes against Iranian targets on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz on 2 November 2026, according to US officials speaking to Reuters and the Associated Press. One US official said the strikes targeted Iranian forces using surface-to-air missiles against US assets. Iran’s state news agency reported explosions on the island. Officials described the action as defensive rather than a resumption of major combat operations. US Central Command did not provide a public response in the Reuters report. The extent of any damage or casualties has not been verified.

BRENT CRUDE OILGOLD / US DOLLAR
Forex

China Raises Banks' FX Reserve Ratio to 6% to Moderate Yuan Rally

The People's Bank of China announced on 3 November 2026 that it will raise the foreign-exchange deposit reserve requirement for financial institutions from 4% to 6% with effect from 15 November. Reuters estimated that the adjustment could withdraw around $24 billion in foreign-currency liquidity from the banking system. The measure follows a more than 5% rise in the yuan this year. Reuters reported that the onshore yuan weakened by as much as 0.37% against the US dollar after the announcement. This foreign-exchange reserve requirement change is separate from the PBOC's earlier equity-support swap facility and short-term repo operations.

USDCNHUSDCNY
Macro

New Zealand Building Consents Fall 7.9% in September Despite Annual Growth

Stats NZ reported on 3 November 2026 that the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented declined 7.9% in September after a 5.3% increase in August. There were 3,570 new dwellings consented during September. In the year ended September, 41,091 new homes were consented, up 18% from the previous year, while the annual value of non-residential building work consented fell 3.1% to NZ$8.7 billion. The monthly decline and stronger annual count highlight different time horizons; a building consent is not proof that construction has started.

NZDUSDAUDNZD
Macro

ECB Official Flags AI Valuations and Sovereign Bonds as Financial Stability Risks

European Central Bank Vice-President Boris Vujcic identified elevated AI equity valuations, government-bond market stress and potential losses at investment funds and other non-bank financial institutions as leading risks to financial stability, according to Reuters reporting on 2 November 2026. He noted that the ECB's forthcoming Financial Stability Review, scheduled for 18 November, was prepared as AI stocks began to correct. Vujcic said fiscal weaknesses should primarily be addressed by governments rather than relying on central-bank intervention. These are official risk assessments, not a newly announced ECB interest-rate decision or emergency market intervention.

EURUSDEU50
Indices

Marvell Agrees to Buy Lumentum in $115 Billion All-Stock AI Optics Deal

Marvell Technology and Lumentum announced a definitive all-stock acquisition agreement on 2 November 2026. Under the proposed terms, Lumentum shareholders would receive 4.500 Marvell shares for each Lumentum share. The companies gave the transaction an implied enterprise value of approximately $115 billion, including an implied value of roughly $1,132 per Lumentum share. Marvell shareholders are expected to own around 67% of the combined company and Lumentum shareholders 33% after closing. The deal is announced, not completed, and remains subject to closing conditions.

MARVELL TECHNOLOGYLUMENTUM
Indices

Apple Q4 Revenue Climbs 12% to $114.5 Billion as Holiday Margins Face Pressure

Apple reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12% year on year, in results released on 2 November. Diluted earnings per share were $2.10, up 14%, and the quarter’s gross margin was 47.9%, including a favourable impact from tariff refunds. The company reported a September-quarter record for iPhone revenue and an all-time high for Services revenue. Subsequent outlook commentary indicated a lower gross-margin range for the holiday quarter as memory costs and product investment increased. These are company-reported results and guidance, not a confirmed future earnings outcome.

APPLE SHARESNASDAQ 100
Indices

Oracle Plans $20 Billion Stock and Bond Financing for AI Build-Out

Oracle announced plans on 2 November 2026 to raise approximately $20 billion to finance its AI and cloud infrastructure expansion, with about $10 billion from an equity offering and $10 billion from bonds. Reuters reported that the company priced 86.2 million shares at $116 each, around an 11.2% discount to its previous close, and that its shares fell 8.8% during the session. The proceeds may be used for capital expenditure and other general corporate purposes. The financing announcement is a confirmed corporate transaction, while future spending outcomes remain uncertain.

ORACLE SHARESNASDAQ 100
Indices

Palantir Q3 Revenue Jumps 96% to $2.31 Billion, Raises Annual Outlook

Palantir reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $2.313 billion, up 96% year on year, on 2 November. US commercial revenue increased 148% to $984 million and exceeded US government revenue of $953 million for the first time. Palantir raised its full-year revenue forecast to $8.530 billion–$8.534 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2.649 billion–$2.653 billion. The results were disclosed in a company earnings release filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The annual and next-quarter guidance is forward-looking, not realised revenue.

PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIESNASDAQ 100
Forex

RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.85% in Split 6–3 Vote as Inflation Persists

The Reserve Bank of Australia increased its cash-rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% at its 3 November 2026 meeting, up from 4.60%. Six Monetary Policy Board members supported an increase and three favoured no change. The rate is its highest since 2008 and marks a fifth increase in 2026. The RBA said inflation remains too high, with elevated fuel prices and domestic cost pressures complicating the return to its target range. The rate decision is confirmed; further increases remain conditional rather than announced.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY
Macro

US Manufacturing PMI Rises to 55.5 in October, Above Forecasts

The Institute for Supply Management reported on 2 November that its US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October 2026 from 54.5 in September, beating a 54.5 consensus forecast. The reading marked a tenth straight month of expansion in US manufacturing. New orders and production expanded, while the prices-paid index remained elevated at 75.2 despite easing from 77.9. The survey is a diffusion index of reported business conditions, not a direct measurement of manufacturing output or an announced Federal Reserve policy change.

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLAR
November 2
Macro

German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop 2.0% in September

German retail sales fell 2.0% month on month in September 2026, according to national statistics reported by Reuters on 2 November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% increase. The release points to weaker consumer spending than anticipated and is separate from Germany’s October labour-market report, October inflation release and third-quarter GDP estimate. The published Reuters report did not establish a specific contemporaneous EUR/USD price reaction.

EUR/USDGERMANY 40 INDEX
Crypto

Binance Begins Restoring Withdrawals After $6.3 Billion Hack

Binance said it would resume withdrawal access in phases from 1 November 2026, covering bitcoin, ether and selected stablecoins and other assets as security reviews passed. It said about 95% of the stolen token assets had been covered or replenished, with the remaining 5% mostly less-liquid assets. A Reuters follow-up reported customer withdrawals following the restart. The earlier hack itself is already covered on Piplix.

BITCOIN / US DOLLARETHER / US DOLLAR
October 31
Crypto

Binance $6.3 Billion Hack Prompts Crypto Exchanges to Tighten Security

Cryptocurrency exchanges moved to strengthen security after Binance disclosed a $6.3 billion theft linked to a breach of its withdrawal-processing systems. Reuters reported on 31 October that Coinbase had made precautionary adjustments to its offline key-storage systems and Kraken was reviewing potential vulnerabilities. Binance halted withdrawals following the attack and said it would use company funds to cover losses. Blockchain analysts said the attack resembled previous North Korea-linked operations, but attribution remains unconfirmed.

BITCOIN / U.S. DOLLARETHER / U.S. DOLLARCOINBASE GLOBAL SHARES
October 16
October 15
AI news

Asian Equities Diverge as AI Valuation Jitters Spark Cross-Border Sector Rotation

Asian equity markets exhibited sharp divergence on Thursday. Tech-heavy indices saw steep headwinds, with the KOSPI sinking sharply and Nikkei 225 shedding 1.3% following Wall Street's tech drawdown and hotter U.S. inflation data. Conversely, Indian equities surged over 1.7%, propelled by enterprise IT earnings and domestic capital inflows taking advantage of foreign institutional rotation.

NIFTY 50 INDEXNIKKEI 225S&P 500
October 9
AI news

TCS Shares Rise After AI Revenue Growth

Tata Consultancy Services shares rose 5.2% to ₹2,183.90 in trading on 9 October, Reuters reported. Its annualised AI revenue reached $3.1 billion in the July–September quarter, growing nearly 20% from the preceding quarter. The share move is an intraday observation. Annualised revenue represents a run rate and should not be presented as revenue earned entirely during that quarter.

TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES · NSE: TCSINDIAS-TCS
September 26
September 24
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