Federal Reserve &amp; US Economy

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLARUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

Fed Officials Push for More Rate Hikes as Logan Calls for Two Increases

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on 30 October 2026 that the US central bank needs at least two further 25-basis-point interest-rate increases to bring inflation back towards its 2% target. St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem separately said additional tightening would be necessary soon, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported further increases. The comments followed the Fed’s 28 October decision to leave its benchmark range at 3.75%–4.00%. These remarks are individual policymakers’ assessments, not an announced FOMC decision to raise rates.

Mexico Q3 GDP Grows 0.9%, Beating Forecasts as Banxico Decision Nears

Mexico’s preliminary third-quarter GDP grew 0.9% quarter on quarter, above the 0.7% Reuters-polled forecast but below the second quarter’s 1.4% increase. Output was up 3.2% from a year earlier, above the 2.5% consensus. Services rose 1.1%, industry 0.8%, while primary activities contracted 0.4%. The figures were released on 30 October 2026.

USD/MXN

US DOLLAR INDEXUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDGOLD / US DOLLAR

US Employment Costs Rise 0.8% in Q3 as Wage Growth Slows

The US Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 30 October. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% over the quarter, benefits rose 0.9%, and total compensation was up 3.4% year on year.

EURO / US DOLLAREURO STOXX 50

German Inflation Slows to 2.8% in October as Core Rate Eases

Germany’s preliminary consumer price inflation slowed to 2.8% year on year in October 2026 from 3.3% in September, according to Destatis. Core inflation eased to 2.1%, while energy prices were up 12.2% year on year. The figures are provisional; final data are due on 11 November.

Canada GDP Stalls in August; September Advance Estimate Signals Decline

Statistics Canada reported on 30 October that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in August 2026, the second consecutive month without growth. Services output fell 0.1%, while goods-producing industries grew 0.1%. A preliminary estimate indicated a 0.1% decline in September; that figure is not a final GDP release. The agency said available monthly data suggested third-quarter industry GDP expanded 0.3%.

USD/CADCAD/JPY

China Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.3 as October Activity Contracts

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.3 in October 2026 from 50.1 in September, returning below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 31 October. The production index declined to 49.8 from 51.7, while new orders fell to 49.4 from 50.5. The non-manufacturing activity index slipped to 49.7 from 50.2, including construction at 48.0 and services at 50.0. The composite PMI output index dropped to 49.7 from 50.7. These are separate measures within one official monthly release, not distinct breaking-news events.

USD/CNHAUD/USDCOPPER

Eurozone GDP Grows 0.4% in Q3, Beating Forecast as Ireland Boosts Result

Euro-area gross domestic product expanded 0.4% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, slowing from 0.6% in the preceding quarter but exceeding a 0.2% forecast, according to a Reuters report published on 30 October. Annual growth was 1.3%. Reuters reported substantial divergence among member economies: Germany expanded 0.2%, Spain and the Netherlands 0.6%, Italy was flat and France contracted 0.1%. Ireland’s 5.5% quarterly increase materially lifted the euro-area aggregate. The regional GDP estimate is a separate statistical release from the national announcements.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

Spain Inflation Holds at 4.9% in October as Core Rate Stays at 3.1%

Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) said in its flash estimate released on 30 October 2026 that consumer prices rose 4.9% year on year in October, unchanged from September. Estimated core inflation, excluding unprocessed food and energy, was 3.1%. The harmonised CPI rate was also 4.9%, while monthly harmonised prices increased 0.5%. INE said lower motor-fuel inflation and slower increases in food and clothing offset upward contributions from package holidays, gas and liquid fuels. All figures are preliminary and subject to confirmation in the final release.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

EUR/USDITALY 40 EQUITY INDEX

Italy’s Economy Stalls in Q3 as GDP Misses Growth Forecast

Italy’s economy recorded zero quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter of 2026, below economists’ forecast of a 0.1% expansion, according to preliminary statistics-office figures reported by Reuters on 30 October. Gross domestic product increased 0.8% from a year earlier, compared with a 0.9% forecast. The preliminary figures leave the economy with an acquired annual growth rate of 0.8% through the third quarter. The report concerns July–September output, not October inflation or the broader eurozone GDP estimate.

EUR/USDGERMANY 40 EQUITY INDEX

German Unemployment Rises by 4,000 in October as Jobless Rate Holds at 6.4%

Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment count rose by 4,000 to 3.016 million in October 2026, less than economists' forecast of a 5,000 increase, according to Federal Employment Agency figures reported by Reuters on 30 October. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4%. In unadjusted terms, unemployment fell by 40,000 from September to 2.955 million. Labour office chief Andrea Nahles said the economy remained too weak to substantially improve employment prospects. Registered vacancies numbered 654,000, up 31,000 from a year earlier.

French Economy Contracts 0.1% in Third Quarter as Investment Falls

France’s gross domestic product contracted 0.1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, according to an INSEE flash estimate reported by the Financial Times on 30 October. The result fell short of economists’ expectations for 0.1% growth and followed no growth in the second quarter. Capital investment declined 0.6% while household consumption increased 0.4%. The data describe the July–September quarter rather than the October PMI survey or the earlier spike in French bond yields.

EUR/USDFRANCE CAC 40

Australia Producer Prices Rise 1.1% in Q3, Up 3.6% Annually

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 30 October 2026 that its final-demand Producer Price Index, excluding exports, rose 1.1% in the September quarter and 3.6% over the year. Construction and services were major sources of quarterly price increases, while petroleum and coal product manufacturing prices declined. The new producer-price figures are a separate release from Australia’s September consumer inflation figures announced on 28 October.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY

Tokyo Core Inflation Eases to 2.6% in October, Still Above BoJ Target

Japan’s Statistics Bureau released its preliminary October 2026 consumer-price data for Tokyo’s 23 wards on 30 October. The index excluding fresh food rose 2.6% from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in September and matching the median forecast cited by Bloomberg. Headline Tokyo consumer inflation was 2.8%. Tokyo’s inflation survey is an early regional price indicator and is not the nationwide October CPI release.

USD/JPYJAPAN 225

US DOLLAR INDEXEUR/USDGOLD/USD

US September PCE Inflation Reaches 3.6% as Core Rate Holds at 3.1%

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 29 October 2026 that the September personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% month on month and 3.6% from a year earlier. The core PCE measure, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over twelve months. Personal income increased 0.2% and current-dollar consumer spending rose 0.5%, while real spending was little changed. These are September data released on 29 October, not new October inflation results.

Australia Export Prices Rise 1.4% in Q3 as Import Prices Fall 1.1%

Australia’s Export Price Index rose 1.4% in the September 2026 quarter and 6.3% over the year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 29 October. The Import Price Index declined 1.1% for the quarter but remained 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The contrasting quarterly moves in export and import prices are relevant to Australia’s terms of trade, without by themselves establishing changes in export volumes or the Australian dollar.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY

New Zealand Business Confidence Rises to 52.5 Despite Softer Activity Outlook

New Zealand business confidence increased to a net 52.5 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September, ANZ’s Business Outlook survey showed on 29 October. Expected own activity eased to 46.2 from 47.9, while reported past activity improved. The survey found firms remained broadly optimistic despite oil-price volatility and ongoing cost pressures. The figures represent survey net balances, not GDP growth rates.

NZD/USDAUD/NZD

Bank of Canada Raises Policy Rate to 2.50% as Inflation Risks Persist

The Bank of Canada increased its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 28 October 2026, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and deposit rate at 2.45%. The central bank said more persistent price pressures and higher energy costs warranted tightening. It forecast inflation averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% around mid-2028.

USDCADCADJPY