Federal Reserve & US Economy

Federal Reserve & US Economy11 hours ago

Ireland Flash Inflation Rises to 4.0% in October as Energy Prices Surge

Ireland’s Central Statistics Office estimated on 3 November 2026 that harmonised consumer-price inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in October from 3.8% in September. Prices increased 0.5% month on month. Energy costs rose 18.3% over the year and 4.5% during October, while food prices were just 0.1% higher than a year earlier. Inflation excluding energy and unprocessed food was estimated at 2.5% annually. These are Ireland’s preliminary harmonised inflation figures, not the euro-area October flash estimate, which was scheduled for 4 November.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

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Federal Reserve & US Economy11 hours ago

Hong Kong Private-Sector PMI Returns to Expansion at 50.2 in October

Hong Kong's S&P Global private-sector purchasing managers' index rose to 50.2 in October 2026 from 49.2 in September, returning just above the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction. Reporting on 4 November said new orders improved after two months of decline, including stronger orders from mainland China, while the pace of job cuts eased. However, business confidence for the year ahead reportedly fell to its lowest level in more than six years and input-price pressure intensified. This is a Hong Kong private-sector survey, not China's mainland manufacturing PMI.

HONG KONG 50 EQUITY INDEXUS DOLLAR / HONG KONG DOLLAR

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Federal Reserve & US Economy11 hours ago

Australia Household Spending Rises 0.6% in September as Fuel Costs Climb

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said on 4 November 2026 that seasonally adjusted household spending rose 0.6% month on month in September, after a 0.1% decline in August. Spending increased 6.8% from a year earlier in current-price terms, while spending volumes rose 0.7% in the September quarter. Transport and health spending each increased 1.5% month on month. The ABS reported that fuel expenditure rose 5.4%, partly reflecting higher global oil prices and the end of fuel-excise relief in August. These are household spending figures, not retail-sales or inflation-rate estimates.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLARAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN

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Federal Reserve & US Economy11 hours ago

China Services Growth Slows as October Private PMI Falls to 50.8

China's RatingDog services purchasing managers' index fell to 50.8 in October 2026 from 51.6 in September, marking its slowest expansion since July. The result was below the 51.7 forecast shown by Investing.com's economic calendar. Reuters reported that business confidence weakened as companies faced fierce competition and rising costs. A reading above 50 still indicates expansion rather than contraction. This is a private services-sector survey, separate from China's official October manufacturing PMI and its private manufacturing survey.

US DOLLAR / OFFSHORE CHINESE YUANAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR

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Federal Reserve & US Economy12 hours ago

New Zealand Unemployment Rises to 5.7% as Employment Falls in Q3

Stats NZ reported on 4 November 2026 that New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in the September quarter, from 5.6% in June. Seasonally adjusted employment fell 0.1% to approximately 2.891 million people, while the employment rate eased to 66.4% from 66.7%. The unemployment rate was above the 5.5% forecast cited in the stats.govt.nz report. Annual wage-rate inflation was 2.1%.

NZDUSDAUDNZD

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Federal Reserve & US Economy13 hours ago

US Job Openings Hold Near 7.5 Million as Quits Increase in September

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on 3 November 2026 that job openings were little changed at approximately 7.5 million in September. Hires were little changed at 5.4 million and total separations at 5.3 million. Quits increased to about 3.4 million, while layoffs and discharges were broadly unchanged at 1.6 million. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics report quotes a rounded 7.52 million reading against a 7.15 million forecast; this summary uses the official BLS rounded release figures.

DXYEURUSDUS10Y

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Federal Reserve & US Economy13 hours ago

US Midterm Projections Point to Democratic Control of Congress

US media projections following the 3 November 2026 midterm elections indicate Democrats have won the House and made major Senate gains. Reuters reported House control was projected in the Democrats’ favour; Axios reported a Democratic Senate takeover based on Associated Press projections. Some races were still being counted when the reports appeared. These are media projections rather than certified final congressional results, and reports of market losses cannot by themselves prove the election was the sole catalyst.

DXYUS500NAS100

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Federal Reserve & US Economya day ago

New Zealand Building Consents Fall 7.9% in September Despite Annual Growth

Stats NZ reported on 3 November 2026 that the seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings consented declined 7.9% in September after a 5.3% increase in August. There were 3,570 new dwellings consented during September. In the year ended September, 41,091 new homes were consented, up 18% from the previous year, while the annual value of non-residential building work consented fell 3.1% to NZ$8.7 billion. The monthly decline and stronger annual count highlight different time horizons; a building consent is not proof that construction has started.

NZDUSDAUDNZD

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Federal Reserve & US Economya day ago

ECB Official Flags AI Valuations and Sovereign Bonds as Financial Stability Risks

European Central Bank Vice-President Boris Vujcic identified elevated AI equity valuations, government-bond market stress and potential losses at investment funds and other non-bank financial institutions as leading risks to financial stability, according to Reuters reporting on 2 November 2026. He noted that the ECB's forthcoming Financial Stability Review, scheduled for 18 November, was prepared as AI stocks began to correct. Vujcic said fiscal weaknesses should primarily be addressed by governments rather than relying on central-bank intervention. These are official risk assessments, not a newly announced ECB interest-rate decision or emergency market intervention.

EURUSDEU50

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Federal Reserve & US Economya day ago

US Manufacturing PMI Rises to 55.5 in October, Above Forecasts

The Institute for Supply Management reported on 2 November that its US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.5 in October 2026 from 54.5 in September, beating a 54.5 consensus forecast. The reading marked a tenth straight month of expansion in US manufacturing. New orders and production expanded, while the prices-paid index remained elevated at 75.2 despite easing from 77.9. The survey is a diffusion index of reported business conditions, not a direct measurement of manufacturing output or an announced Federal Reserve policy change.

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLAR

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Federal Reserve & US Economy2 days ago

German Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop 2.0% in September

German retail sales fell 2.0% month on month in September 2026, according to national statistics reported by Reuters on 2 November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.4% increase. The release points to weaker consumer spending than anticipated and is separate from Germany’s October labour-market report, October inflation release and third-quarter GDP estimate. The published Reuters report did not establish a specific contemporaneous EUR/USD price reaction.

EUR/USDGERMANY 40 INDEX

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

Fed Officials Push for More Rate Hikes as Logan Calls for Two Increases

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said on 30 October 2026 that the US central bank needs at least two further 25-basis-point interest-rate increases to bring inflation back towards its 2% target. St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem separately said additional tightening would be necessary soon, while Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin also supported further increases. The comments followed the Fed’s 28 October decision to leave its benchmark range at 3.75%–4.00%. These remarks are individual policymakers’ assessments, not an announced FOMC decision to raise rates.

US DOLLAR INDEXGOLD / US DOLLARUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

Mexico Q3 GDP Grows 0.9%, Beating Forecasts as Banxico Decision Nears

Mexico’s preliminary third-quarter GDP grew 0.9% quarter on quarter, above the 0.7% Reuters-polled forecast but below the second quarter’s 1.4% increase. Output was up 3.2% from a year earlier, above the 2.5% consensus. Services rose 1.1%, industry 0.8%, while primary activities contracted 0.4%. The figures were released on 30 October 2026.

USD/MXN

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

US Employment Costs Rise 0.8% in Q3 as Wage Growth Slows

The US Employment Cost Index rose 0.8% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 0.9% in the previous quarter, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on 30 October. Wages and salaries increased 0.7% over the quarter, benefits rose 0.9%, and total compensation was up 3.4% year on year.

US DOLLAR INDEXUS 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELDGOLD / US DOLLAR

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

German Inflation Slows to 2.8% in October as Core Rate Eases

Germany’s preliminary consumer price inflation slowed to 2.8% year on year in October 2026 from 3.3% in September, according to Destatis. Core inflation eased to 2.1%, while energy prices were up 12.2% year on year. The figures are provisional; final data are due on 11 November.

EURO / US DOLLAREURO STOXX 50

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

Canada GDP Stalls in August; September Advance Estimate Signals Decline

Statistics Canada reported on 30 October that real GDP by industry was essentially unchanged in August 2026, the second consecutive month without growth. Services output fell 0.1%, while goods-producing industries grew 0.1%. A preliminary estimate indicated a 0.1% decline in September; that figure is not a final GDP release. The agency said available monthly data suggested third-quarter industry GDP expanded 0.3%.

USD/CADCAD/JPY

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Federal Reserve & US Economy4 days ago

China Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.3 as October Activity Contracts

China’s official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.3 in October 2026 from 50.1 in September, returning below the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 31 October. The production index declined to 49.8 from 51.7, while new orders fell to 49.4 from 50.5. The non-manufacturing activity index slipped to 49.7 from 50.2, including construction at 48.0 and services at 50.0. The composite PMI output index dropped to 49.7 from 50.7. These are separate measures within one official monthly release, not distinct breaking-news events.

USD/CNHAUD/USDCOPPER

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

Eurozone GDP Grows 0.4% in Q3, Beating Forecast as Ireland Boosts Result

Euro-area gross domestic product expanded 0.4% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, slowing from 0.6% in the preceding quarter but exceeding a 0.2% forecast, according to a Reuters report published on 30 October. Annual growth was 1.3%. Reuters reported substantial divergence among member economies: Germany expanded 0.2%, Spain and the Netherlands 0.6%, Italy was flat and France contracted 0.1%. Ireland’s 5.5% quarterly increase materially lifted the euro-area aggregate. The regional GDP estimate is a separate statistical release from the national announcements.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

Spain Inflation Holds at 4.9% in October as Core Rate Stays at 3.1%

Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE) said in its flash estimate released on 30 October 2026 that consumer prices rose 4.9% year on year in October, unchanged from September. Estimated core inflation, excluding unprocessed food and energy, was 3.1%. The harmonised CPI rate was also 4.9%, while monthly harmonised prices increased 0.5%. INE said lower motor-fuel inflation and slower increases in food and clothing offset upward contributions from package holidays, gas and liquid fuels. All figures are preliminary and subject to confirmation in the final release.

EUR/USDEURO STOXX 50

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

Italy’s Economy Stalls in Q3 as GDP Misses Growth Forecast

Italy’s economy recorded zero quarter-on-quarter growth in the third quarter of 2026, below economists’ forecast of a 0.1% expansion, according to preliminary statistics-office figures reported by Reuters on 30 October. Gross domestic product increased 0.8% from a year earlier, compared with a 0.9% forecast. The preliminary figures leave the economy with an acquired annual growth rate of 0.8% through the third quarter. The report concerns July–September output, not October inflation or the broader eurozone GDP estimate.

EUR/USDITALY 40 EQUITY INDEX

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

German Unemployment Rises by 4,000 in October as Jobless Rate Holds at 6.4%

Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment count rose by 4,000 to 3.016 million in October 2026, less than economists' forecast of a 5,000 increase, according to Federal Employment Agency figures reported by Reuters on 30 October. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4%. In unadjusted terms, unemployment fell by 40,000 from September to 2.955 million. Labour office chief Andrea Nahles said the economy remained too weak to substantially improve employment prospects. Registered vacancies numbered 654,000, up 31,000 from a year earlier.

EUR/USDGERMANY 40 EQUITY INDEX

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

French Economy Contracts 0.1% in Third Quarter as Investment Falls

France’s gross domestic product contracted 0.1% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2026, according to an INSEE flash estimate reported by the Financial Times on 30 October. The result fell short of economists’ expectations for 0.1% growth and followed no growth in the second quarter. Capital investment declined 0.6% while household consumption increased 0.4%. The data describe the July–September quarter rather than the October PMI survey or the earlier spike in French bond yields.

EUR/USDFRANCE CAC 40

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

Australia Producer Prices Rise 1.1% in Q3, Up 3.6% Annually

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 30 October 2026 that its final-demand Producer Price Index, excluding exports, rose 1.1% in the September quarter and 3.6% over the year. Construction and services were major sources of quarterly price increases, while petroleum and coal product manufacturing prices declined. The new producer-price figures are a separate release from Australia’s September consumer inflation figures announced on 28 October.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

Tokyo Core Inflation Eases to 2.6% in October, Still Above BoJ Target

Japan’s Statistics Bureau released its preliminary October 2026 consumer-price data for Tokyo’s 23 wards on 30 October. The index excluding fresh food rose 2.6% from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in September and matching the median forecast cited by Bloomberg. Headline Tokyo consumer inflation was 2.8%. Tokyo’s inflation survey is an early regional price indicator and is not the nationwide October CPI release.

USD/JPYJAPAN 225

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Federal Reserve & US Economy5 days ago

US September PCE Inflation Reaches 3.6% as Core Rate Holds at 3.1%

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on 29 October 2026 that the September personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% month on month and 3.6% from a year earlier. The core PCE measure, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 3.1% over twelve months. Personal income increased 0.2% and current-dollar consumer spending rose 0.5%, while real spending was little changed. These are September data released on 29 October, not new October inflation results.

US DOLLAR INDEXEUR/USDGOLD/USD

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Federal Reserve & US Economy6 days ago

Australia Export Prices Rise 1.4% in Q3 as Import Prices Fall 1.1%

Australia’s Export Price Index rose 1.4% in the September 2026 quarter and 6.3% over the year, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 29 October. The Import Price Index declined 1.1% for the quarter but remained 5.5% higher than a year earlier. The contrasting quarterly moves in export and import prices are relevant to Australia’s terms of trade, without by themselves establishing changes in export volumes or the Australian dollar.

AUD/USDAUD/JPY

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Federal Reserve & US Economy6 days ago

New Zealand Business Confidence Rises to 52.5 Despite Softer Activity Outlook

New Zealand business confidence increased to a net 52.5 in October 2026 from 51.9 in September, ANZ’s Business Outlook survey showed on 29 October. Expected own activity eased to 46.2 from 47.9, while reported past activity improved. The survey found firms remained broadly optimistic despite oil-price volatility and ongoing cost pressures. The figures represent survey net balances, not GDP growth rates.

NZD/USDAUD/NZD

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Federal Reserve & US Economy6 days ago

Bank of Canada Raises Policy Rate to 2.50% as Inflation Risks Persist

The Bank of Canada increased its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 28 October 2026, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and deposit rate at 2.45%. The central bank said more persistent price pressures and higher energy costs warranted tightening. It forecast inflation averaging 3% in 2027 before returning to 2% around mid-2028.

USDCADCADJPY

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Federal Reserve & US Economy6 days ago

Federal Reserve Holds Rates at 3.75%–4.00% as Two Officials Seek a Hike

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% on 28 October 2026 by a 10–2 vote. Reuters reported that policymakers described economic growth as strong, while inflation remained elevated. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point increase. The decision and accompanying remarks left markets reassessing the likelihood of a December rate rise.

DXYEURUSDUSDJPY

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